Future Bubble No time to read our "Future Bubble" page ... click here to contact Luke.

1         The Future Bubble

A journey through psychology, technology and Mahayana Buddhism.

We each operate with-in our own model of reality.  Sharing bubbles of interactions with others, following scripts based on familiar frameworks.  Here is your opportunity to peer into a bubble filled with an interpretation of the future.  A future viewed from a technological and spiritual perspective.

There is a definable gap, the “untapped potential”.  This gap has parallels in other areas of life.  It is a key driver behind our own development.  If people have the luxury to contemplate their own untapped potential they probably also have the time to initiate their own step change.  The moment just before they change is their ‘crystallisation of discontent’.  All-encompassing efforts to propel themselves towards a life in which they are more fulfilled (and are no longer simply looking to maximise their options) becomes a reality.

What kind of machine could accelerate the changes necessary to fuel the journey toward this step-change?

è continue

2         Reality Check

The future is not what it used to be.  Most of the soothsayers suggest that the era we are currently in, the Information Revolution, has somewhere between 20 to 50 years left in it.  A big variation, sure, but based on the current life expectancy and the demographics of a typical Internet user chances are you’ll be around for it whether it is sooner, or later.

To get an idea of the magnitude of change in the next 50 years consider these emerging technologies …

1)     According to some people by 2020 computers will have the processing ability of the human brain.  Therefore by 2022 (18 months later) computers will have twice the processing ability of the human brain (compare this to how long it would take to see the same doubling of the human's brain capacity via evolution).

2)     Artificial Intelligence … artificial brains that are comparable to spiders are passé and they’ve recently overtaken lizards.  Currently under development is a brain comparable to that of a kitten.  Bootstrapping is where a system can modify it’s own design.  By 2030 Artificial Intelligence will have matured immensely and computer-processing grunt will be hundreds of times more powerful than the human brain.  You would think that by this time computers would surely have become more competent than humans at designing their own successors.  Almost immediately after this happens computers will become more intelligent than humans, no matter how you define intelligence (send complaints here).

3)     Molecular Assembly.  Building “things” from the ground up … and here ‘the ground’ is atoms and molecules (they’re already doing it).  Yep, this will include living tissue.  Consider Gene Technology combined with Molecular Assembly and a computer that understands the potential of all of this technology, infinitely better than humans.  The hardware for artificial intelligence may not be circuit boards but a highly efficient synthetic species.

The spike is the point at which projections based on current models of reality fly out the window (it's also the name of a book). 

Beyond this spike is a land of the unthinkable … for the human brain anyway.  But what happens on the way to the spike?

It’s at this point your mind may shoot off along several lines of enquiry, depending on your mood …

i)                    If the spike doesn’t happen in my lifetime what’s the best I can do with what I’ve got?

ii)                  If the spike does happen in my lifetime how do I make the most of it rather than hiding my head in the sand?

iii)                What’s the spike got to do with me anyway?

iv)                What would Buddha say about all of this?

 è continue

3         Buddha Road Kill

It doesn’t matter what Buddha would say because the theme would probably be something about working it out for yourself … after all, when have you known Buddha to give a straight answer.

At the end of the day whether you believe the spike is going to happen or not, or whether you believe it has anything to do with you or not, you’re probably better off avoiding the pursuit of fantasy images and instead concentrating on your own pathway.

The author’s pathway involves the very nature of the spike, the pathway to it and especially lots of intellectual playfulness about what life will be like after the spike, even if it is pointless.  Along the way there is always the possibility of discovering areas of untapped potential and meeting interesting bystanders.

For those more satisfied with the thought of one hand clapping, let’s pretend Buddha said something like “get a grip”.  Which, after months of staring at a leaf, we decided actually means our whole “Spike Theory” needs a reality check.

Here’s what I think would come next …

Just because we can’t project our current models of reality past the spike it doesn’t mean the world will be a better or worse place to live, it just means it will be somewhat different.  I sometimes wonder if people get freaked out about a future they can’t imagine.  I’m comforted by the fact that it is just going to be another type of reality.

I have to admit though, what keeps me interested is swinging back and forth between practical applications and intangible conceptualisations.  And after meeting Buddha on the road twice in one day, and not killing him on either occasion, I’m now ready to delve into some practical applications.

What does the pathway to the spike look like … short-term?

è continue

4         Virtual Everything

Before discussing the short-term pathway to the spike I’d like to put “short-term” in perspective.  A short-term approach, in my opinion, is one based on leveraging technologies that are currently available?

As I mentioned earlier I think there is already too much focus on progressing technology and not enough focus on making it more accessible.  So let’s look out 5 years and resist the temptation to get too fancy with our predictions?

We’ll start with the basics.  Firstly most people would agree that we’ll see a substantial increase in bandwidth, which to the layman means faster access, better looking screens, smarter applications and therefore (hopefully) friendlier applications.

Secondly I think we’ll see substantial improvements in security.  This includes everything from protecting financial transactions right through to e-mails.  Hackers, viruses and spam won’t quite be a thing of the past but certainly won’t be as pervasive as they are currently.

As a result of the two points above I think we’ll see substantial growth in “online applications”.  Applications currently run too slow over the Internet and business people are hesitant to trust their business critical information to the Internet.  None of these predictions are terribly exciting and you would be hard pressed to find an Internet magazine that didn’t make at least one of these predictions, if not all three; bandwidth, security and online applications.

What I do find a little more exciting is one particular opportunity that this type of environment would provide.  Before I go on let me just assure you that I won’t be handing out the collection plate or looking for amnesic investors seeking out IT ventures to prop up their portfolio.

Rather than seeing the Internet as a collection of destinations I think the ‘near future’ will have it as a virtual resource.  Virtual Bookkeepers for small business, Virtual Helpdesks for larger ones … just two examples of what could be a plethora of virtual assistants and virtual managers.

So how would these “Virtual Managers” work?

To illustrate the potential of Virtual Managers, as opposed to flesh and blood ones, I’d like to borrow from Linus Torvald.  Actually to be more precise I’m going to borrow from Eric S Raymond’s description of how Linus defeated Microsoft.  Basically Linus tapped into an undercurrent of under-utilised programmers.  He set-up a framework that allowed these programmers to use his product for free and personally contribute to its development. Lookup Eric Raymond’s “Cathedral and the Bazaar” for more information.

 Linus unlocked untapped potential and then harnessed it.  If an application that harnessed the resources of programmers could defeat Microsoft, imagine what you could achieve if you harnessed the resources of the masses (i.e. any person able to use a web browser).

è continue

5         Virtual Manager

5.1      Introduction

Ask me for a functional spec of Virtual Manager.

Ask me for an exec summary of Virtual Manager.

5.2      Presentations

Ask me for a PowerPoint presentation of Virtual Manager (it was originally called StepOne).

Ask me for an interesting advertisement from Andersen Consulting.  It comes from the pre- dot com era but has an interesting simple message that might again become appropriate in the future.

5.2.1      Predecessors to Virtual Manager

Ask me for the StepOne website (one approach to StepOne could be described as “Developing a set of paper based business analytical, process mapping tools, for the intelligent analysis of clients standard business processes with a view to developing a set of dynamic digital equivalents.  This digitized process mapping tool-set will be refined through extensive face to face engagements with clients with the ultimate vision being to totally automate these digital tools giving control to the user and delivering the process wholly online.”)

Ask me for another StepOne exec summary. And another one is here.

Ask me for some of the cashflow estimates we did comparing the different target markets and a more detailed one. And yet another one here (check for duplicates).

Ask me for detailed notes of StepOne and here is another persons take on it and here is a really detailed document about it (a tidal wave hits floodgate).

Ask me for an exec summary of WIAD (Website in a Day) the predecessor to StepOne and here is the wiad brochure and here is an explanation of the details of what would need to be covered in WIAD and this doc is also helpful since it covers all the main areas of web-development … great for eyeballing before talking to a customer.  Here is the workbook we would have used with clients.  The two main advertising docs for WIAD are the std specs and lite specs.

I guess a very early predecessor was the Biznet webquote found here.

Ask me for the old KIM website idea (Knowledge through info management) version 1, version 2, version 3

5.3      Target Markets

In approx. order of their evolution / implementation.

5.3.1      Virtual Web Developer

Ask me for an example of a letter to a reseller.  This is an example of a very early stage of Virtual Manager.  Here a person with substantial industry skills but few web dev skills can act as the intermediary between a “Virtual Web developer” and the customer.

5.3.2      Virtual IT Manager

Ask me for a Business Plan for VITM (here is a template for a business plan … might have some stuff that is missing from the other one).

Ask me for an example of a flyer that went to small businesses trying to address their IT needs.  With a Virtual IT Manager for Small business these needs would e met on an ongoing basis.  Here the reseller or agent would provide the face-to-face training and then use Virtual IT Manager for ongoing support, communication and facilitation with the customer.

Ask me for the submission that went to an IT incubator company.

Ask me for some more thoughts on VITM. And more here.

Ask me for a mini exec summary of VITM.

5.3.3      Virtual Accountant / Bookkeeper

Ask me for a functional spec of Virtual Accountant.

Ask me for a sample business plan.  There is a folder with a bunch of stuff leftover from the work I did with the Accountants.

5.3.4      Virtual Manager for Manufacturers

Ask me for a brochure on “The value of IT in the Manufacturing sector”.

Ask me for the program for the “Computers In Manufacturing seminar”.

Ask me for the “Supply Chain/ Value Chain Self-Assessment” form.

5.3.4.1                   Manunet – Manufacturing and the Internet

This is a business I built just before Biznet was established.

Ask me for general notes about Manunet.

5.3.5      Virtual Manager for Small Business

The above applications plus others would create a virtual one-stop-shop for small businesses.

Ask me to see an article about modular work (a pattern of working where there’s room for making heart choices and following your dreams, as well as paying the bills).

Ask me for an example of the foundations a small business would need, here is the document as a MS Project file and here is another MS Project version.

Not much use but here is an XL spreadsheet showing how I was trying to get my head around the hierarchy of solutions.

Ask me for an article about small business and the internet.

5.3.6      Virtual Manager for individuals à Personal Development

Ask me for a presentation to Link-up (a Personal Development firm in Sydney).

Ask me for some thoughts on it.

There are already numerous sites offering personality profiles.  You answer a few multiple-choice questions and the website returns the personality profile that most closely matches your answers.  The benefit of this is that you can then read typical strengths and weaknesses of people with that type of personality.  You can do your own reality check and if it seems right you can then read on to strategies that seem to work for people like you.  Understandably few people like to be boxed in this manner, however if you can get over the label and realize it for what it is – a program spitting out a correlated answer – you can begin to understand how this stuff can be helpful.

Ask me to see an example of the types of profiles these websites produce – and here for another one.

Ask me for some more thoughts on Vman for Pers Dev.

5.3.7      Virtual Manager for SME’s

5.3.8      Virtual Manager for corporations

Ask me for info about the St. James Ethics centre (at the end of the document is a section called “… at a glance” this is a summary showing just how interesting this NPO is – they do counselling, consulting and have a “think tank”).

5.4      Tools to build Virtual Manager

5.4.1      SaaS

5.4.1.1                   Software as a Service

Woth online applications you can add your own custom applications, if you know how to program them.  You can (or at least you once could) download ColdFusion Express, this is free and can be used to build (limited) cold fusion app’s.  A book on Cold Fusion costs you $100 and takes about a month to learn enough to build your own app’s (probably not that efficient though).

5.4.1.2                   Programming Languages

Prologue great for AI.

Ask me for an Interesting alternative … calls himself 6^th generation software (if nothing else gives a reasonable explanation of the generations of software).

In the early stages there may even be an opportunity to use something simple like Filemaker.

5.4.2      Hardware

Ask me for I-opener – this is the classic style of desktop for the Vman implementation (here are the specs).

Ask me for products that are similar – excellent low cost + cool looking computer – great as a simple browser interface.

5.5      Competitors (or future modules) of Virtual Manager

Ask me for a matrix of competitors with functionality compared.

Ask me for a brochure of LivePerson (great way to communicate with your virtual manager via a web browser interface).

Ask me for an online business analysis example called “Business Insight”.

Ask me for “Virtual MIS Manager” services (the folder contains other web pages for that site as well).

5.6      Financials - Funding – Investment

Ask me for a basic cash flow example also shown under the heading section “Predecessors to Virtual Manager ”.

Ask me for some very basic info but interesting links to other companies.

Ask me for an example of grants that are on offer for this kind of thing.

5.7      Legal

Ask me for a sample of a document you can use as a draft for a reseller agreement.

Ask me for another cool legal jargon page.

5.8      Marketing Research

Here is a source of great info for Market Research.

6         Philosophical Part of story

Ask me for the interesting story called “The Prince and the Magician”.

Ask me for the “In search of God” article.

Ask me for a snippet of a Religious Tolerance website with some really interesting stuff.  Ask me for the contact details.

7         Other Stuff

7.1      MS Access Database Pilots

Ask me for a pretty awesome demonstration of the above theory.  Look at the complex functionality provided … and all this with only two tables à States and Events !!

Ask me for a pretty detailed (complex) Access Database used to store activities and tasks.

Ask me for a live working version of the Solutions Database (this lets you add suppliers a but also helps you do instant quotes for Customers as you add components … discussing with them what the needs are for their business).  And this one is a similar application but has a cool solution comparison form.

And here is an earlier version (more simple … maybe prefer it actually, does the core task of storing ideas and tasks pretty well).  And here is a later version … much more complex and actually based on states and events the theory – this is one of the few version where I have applied the theory to an MS Access database (rather than a Cold Fusion web-based application).  Some interesting concepts built into this model.  And I think this database was used in conjunction with the Cold Fusion files when using a threads style application on the web.

7.2      Threads

Ask me for the image called ”Threads”.

7.3      JATOR

“Affordable, educational, entertainment”

JATOR (Just Another Type Of Reality … simple example / complex example).

Account for various dimensions such as

• Education
• Entertainment
• Accessibility and affordability

Ask me for the original sketch.  From this image alone you can see that JATOR has something to do with VR (head mounted display) and exercise.

Ask me for the home page for JATOR (not bad at capturing the theme).

JATOR driven by an AI threads based engine.

7.4      Research (done & to do)

7.4.1      Timelines

Various dimensions to map against time (log) through history

·        Population

·        Agriculture (NB Ishmael)

·        Technology

·        Knowledge / Information

·        Health

·        Happiness / Stress / Quality of life

7.4.2      Step-change / Turning Point

Refer to “The Turning Point” – Fritjof Capra.

7.4.3      Internet

Ask me for ABS stats & here.

7.4.4      Key Strategy Points

First & Foremost … a Digital Strategy must advance the business strategy

What do I do?            …Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats

What am I?                 …Price, Differentiation, Focus

Where do I play?       …Value Chain Analysis

What do I deliver?     …Product & Service Strategy

How do I deliver?      …Channel Strategy

How does it flow?      …Customer Lifecycle Analysis

7.5      Other ideas to expand

Go through these other “idea” documents to see if there are any gems.

Luke’s Wave document (passion, skills, qualifications etc.).

Ask me for a history of ideas that dates back 10 years or so and here is another early one called “Take a breath”.

Luke’s model of consciousness (bio çè schema çè environment).

Ask me for Luke’s summary of the Cathedral and bazaar (approach to threads – web users not programmers).

Ask me for “Steps to ecommerce”.

Ask me for Internet and Inventory management.

Ask me for a great Exec Summary (Skyfish).

Here is a sample of a Skyfish portal I designed (reduce window to equiv of 800x600).

Ask me for an explanation of ASP’s

Ask me for a great explanation of XML.

Ask me for an explanation of VPN’s.

Ask me for portal in a box.

Ask me for some notes I made as Chief Knowledge Officer of Skyfish.

Ask me for KM style e-mail with Knowledge mail.

Ask me for Luke’s presentation of e-business for start-ups

Ask me for .NET stuff + Bill Gates version of IT revolution.

Ask me for comments on outsourcing business technology.

If we need to write this into a business plan here is a detailed template.

Ask me for the idea about a model of a factory to demonstrate manufacturing systems.

Ask me for a great Skyfish presentation.

Here is an article I called “Toaster E-mail” it is about the future of the Internet as it permeates into everything including white goods.

Book Summaries; Digital Nervous System

Why a step change not a gradual one (horse poo, switch board … IT people).

Crystallisation of Discontent

Ask me for comparison of Mind Mapping tools.

Re: “Information Revolution, has somewhere between 20 to 50 years left in it” – insert table from “The Spike”.

Ask me about Undivided Attention

Ask me for a white paper on knowledge mapping (info on NetMap which is a very interesting tool (maybe can be worked into VITM somehow?) – this is a great example of knowledge mapping.  NetMap website also shown in links.

“Words” – a mere shadow of the vibrations you share with others.

Living in other people’s imagination (The logic of worldly success rests on a fallacy: the strange error that our perfection depends on the thoughts and opinions and applause of other men! A weird life it is, indeed, to be living always in somebody else's imagination, as if that were the only place in which one could at last become real! … from http://ubmail.ubalt.edu/~harsham/opre640/opre640.htm).

Mindsplurge

Defining Intelligence (AI – consciousness = self awareness)

If you meet Buddha on the road kill him (http://www.ordinarymind.com/koan_killing.html)

Remotely administer the box that a Biznet app is running on … either use Windows std feature or Linux or something fancy like http://www.neobox.com.au/ - maybe worth kicking in at certain revenue trigger point.

Crystal + catalyst + conducive plasma = success.  Linux success because Linus was clever enough to develop a very effective crystal (kernel) and he was clever enough to tap into a conducive plasma (network of programmers) and he had a natural catalyst (IPS’s desire for an alternative to Microsoft).